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2008 President · OR

Moore Information Group · fieldwork ended 2008-10-27 (8 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 37%

D+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.75% · Republican 40.40%

D+16.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 37 = 14.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.749 − 40.401 = 16.348
  3. Signed miss = 14.00 − (16.348) = -2.348
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.348| = 2.348

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16590, race ID 741 (538 database).