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2008 President · MN

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2008-10-28 (7 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 43%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.06% · Republican 43.82%

D+10.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 43 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.060 − 43.823 = 10.237
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (10.237) = 1.763
  4. Absolute miss = |1.763| = 1.763

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16600, race ID 727 (538 database).