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2008 President · KS

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-10-27 (8 days before the election) · 626 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 58%

R+21.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.65% · Republican 56.61%

R+15.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 58 = -21.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.652 − 56.612 = -14.960
  3. Signed miss = -21.00 − (-14.960) = -6.040
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.040| = 6.040

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16605, race ID 720 (538 database).