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2008 Senate · MA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-10-27 (8 days before the election) · 658 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 58% · Republican 34%

D+24.0

The certified result

Democrat 63.55% · Republican 29.84%

D+33.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58 − 34 = 24.00
  2. Actual margin = 63.551 − 29.844 = 33.707
  3. Signed miss = 24.00 − (33.707) = -9.707
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.707| = 9.707

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16606, race ID 1559 (538 database).