2008 Governor · DE
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-10-27 (8 days before the election) · 657 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 62% · Republican 27%
D+35.0
The certified result
Democrat 67.53% · Republican 32.05%
D+35.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 62 − 27 = 35.00
- Actual margin = 67.525 − 32.050 = 35.475
- Signed miss = 35.00 − (35.475) = -0.475
- Absolute miss = |-0.475| = 0.475
The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16608, race ID 1313 (538 database).