2008 Senate · DE
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-10-27 (8 days before the election) · 657 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 66% · Republican 32%
D+34.0
The certified result
Democrat 64.69% · Republican 35.31%
D+29.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 66 − 32 = 34.00
- Actual margin = 64.687 − 35.313 = 29.374
- Signed miss = 34.00 − (29.374) = 4.627
- Absolute miss = |4.627| = 4.627
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16608, race ID 1549 (538 database).