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2008 President · NY

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-10-27 (8 days before the election) · 633 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 62% · Republican 33%

D+29.0

The certified result

Democrat 60.13% · Republican 31.30%

D+28.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 62 − 33 = 29.00
  2. Actual margin = 60.129 − 31.303 = 28.826
  3. Signed miss = 29.00 − (28.826) = 0.174
  4. Absolute miss = |0.174| = 0.174

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16609, race ID 738 (538 database).