Skip to content

2008 President · CO

FTI Consulting · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 409 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 44%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.66% · Republican 44.71%

D+9.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 44 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.660 − 44.708 = 8.952
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (8.952) = -4.953
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.953| = 4.953

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16613, race ID 709 (538 database).