2008 President · FL
Los Angeles Times · fieldwork ended 2008-10-26 (9 days before the election) · 639 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 40%
D+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.03% · Republican 48.22%
D+2.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 40 = 9.00
- Actual margin = 51.033 − 48.215 = 2.818
- Signed miss = 9.00 − (2.818) = 6.182
- Absolute miss = |6.182| = 6.182
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16626, race ID 713 (538 database).