2008 President · VA
GfK Group · fieldwork ended 2008-10-24 (11 days before the election) · 601 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 42%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.63% · Republican 46.33%
D+6.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 42 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 52.629 − 46.331 = 6.298
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (6.298) = 0.701
- Absolute miss = |0.701| = 0.701
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16630, race ID 749 (538 database).