2008 President · NH
GfK Group · fieldwork ended 2008-10-24 (11 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 55% · Republican 37%
D+18.0
The certified result
Democrat 54.13% · Republican 44.52%
D+9.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 55 − 37 = 18.00
- Actual margin = 54.127 − 44.521 = 9.606
- Signed miss = 18.00 − (9.606) = 8.395
- Absolute miss = |8.395| = 8.395
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16634, race ID 734 (538 database).