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2008 President · PA

GfK Group · fieldwork ended 2008-10-24 (11 days before the election) · 607 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 40%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.49% · Republican 44.17%

D+10.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 40 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.486 − 44.167 = 10.319
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (10.319) = 1.682
  4. Absolute miss = |1.682| = 1.682

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16636, race ID 742 (538 database).