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2008 President · NC

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2008-10-26 (9 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 49%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.70% · Republican 49.38%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 49 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.704 − 49.376 = 0.328
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (0.328) = -1.329
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.329| = 1.329

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16645, race ID 731 (538 database).