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2008 President · CO

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2008-10-26 (9 days before the election) · 636 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 45%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.66% · Republican 44.71%

D+9.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 45 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.660 − 44.708 = 8.952
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (8.952) = -0.953
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.953| = 0.953

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16647, race ID 709 (538 database).