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2008 President · WV

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 50%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.59% · Republican 55.71%

R+13.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 50 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.590 − 55.710 = -13.120
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-13.120) = 3.121
  4. Absolute miss = |3.121| = 3.121

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16659, race ID 753 (538 database).