Skip to content

2008 President · FL

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 47%

even

The certified result

Democrat 51.03% · Republican 48.22%

D+2.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 47 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.033 − 48.215 = 2.818
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (2.818) = -2.818
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.818| = 2.818

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.8 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16661, race ID 713 (538 database).