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2008 Senate · VA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 671 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 63% · Republican 32%

D+31.0

The certified result

Democrat 65.03% · Republican 33.73%

D+31.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 63 − 32 = 31.00
  2. Actual margin = 65.033 − 33.729 = 31.304
  3. Signed miss = 31.00 − (31.304) = -0.304
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.304| = 0.304

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16672, race ID 1577 (538 database).