2008 Governor · NH
University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 698 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 68% · Republican 18%
D+50.0
The certified result
Democrat 70.18% · Republican 27.62%
D+42.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 68 − 18 = 50.00
- Actual margin = 70.181 − 27.624 = 42.557
- Signed miss = 50.00 − (42.557) = 7.443
- Absolute miss = |7.443| = 7.443
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16677, race ID 1317 (538 database).