2008 Governor · UT
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2008-10-24 (11 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 17% · Republican 73%
R+56.0
The certified result
Democrat 19.73% · Republican 77.63%
R+57.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 17 − 73 = -56.00
- Actual margin = 19.725 − 77.634 = -57.909
- Signed miss = -56.00 − (-57.909) = 1.909
- Absolute miss = |1.909| = 1.909
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16680, race ID 1319 (538 database).