2008 House · UT-1
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2008-10-24 (11 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 29% · Republican 54%
R+25.0
The certified result
Democrat 30.47% · Republican 64.86%
R+34.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 29 − 54 = -25.00
- Actual margin = 30.473 − 64.855 = -34.382
- Signed miss = -25.00 − (-34.382) = 9.382
- Absolute miss = |9.382| = 9.382
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16680, race ID 4425 (538 database).