2008 House · UT-2
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2008-10-24 (11 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 57% · Republican 30%
D+27.0
The certified result
Democrat 63.35% · Republican 34.47%
D+28.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 57 − 30 = 27.00
- Actual margin = 63.351 − 34.474 = 28.877
- Signed miss = 27.00 − (28.877) = -1.876
- Absolute miss = |-1.876| = 1.876
The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16680, race ID 4426 (538 database).