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2008 Senate · VA

ABC News/The Washington Post · fieldwork ended 2008-10-24 (11 days before the election) · 784 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 61% · Republican 31%

D+30.0

The certified result

Democrat 65.03% · Republican 33.73%

D+31.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 61 − 31 = 30.00
  2. Actual margin = 65.033 − 33.729 = 31.304
  3. Signed miss = 30.00 − (31.304) = -1.304
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.304| = 1.304

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16686, race ID 1577 (538 database).