2008 President · MN
Big Ten · fieldwork ended 2008-10-21 (14 days before the election) · 583 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 57% · Republican 38%
D+19.0
The certified result
Democrat 54.06% · Republican 43.82%
D+10.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 57 − 38 = 19.00
- Actual margin = 54.060 − 43.823 = 10.237
- Signed miss = 19.00 − (10.237) = 8.763
- Absolute miss = |8.763| = 8.763
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16716, race ID 727 (538 database).