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2008 Senate · MI

EPIC-MRA · fieldwork ended 2008-10-21 (14 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 58% · Republican 30%

D+28.0

The certified result

Democrat 62.66% · Republican 33.85%

D+28.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58 − 30 = 28.00
  2. Actual margin = 62.665 − 33.846 = 28.819
  3. Signed miss = 28.00 − (28.819) = -0.819
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.819| = 0.819

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16718, race ID 1560 (538 database).