2008 President · MI
EPIC-MRA · fieldwork ended 2008-10-21 (14 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 37%
D+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 57.43% · Republican 40.96%
D+16.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 37 = 14.00
- Actual margin = 57.431 − 40.958 = 16.473
- Signed miss = 14.00 − (16.473) = -2.473
- Absolute miss = |-2.473| = 2.473
The poll overstated the Republican by 2.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16718, race ID 726 (538 database).