2008 President · NY
Marist College · fieldwork ended 2008-10-21 (14 days before the election) · 527 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 65% · Republican 29%
D+36.0
The certified result
Democrat 60.13% · Republican 31.30%
D+28.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 65 − 29 = 36.00
- Actual margin = 60.129 − 31.303 = 28.826
- Signed miss = 36.00 − (28.826) = 7.174
- Absolute miss = |7.174| = 7.174
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16720, race ID 738 (538 database).