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2008 Senate · MN

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2008-10-22 (13 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 37%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.99% · Republican 41.98%

even

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 37 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.994 − 41.983 = 0.011
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (0.011) = 3.989
  4. Absolute miss = |3.989| = 3.989

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16725, race ID 1561 (538 database).