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2008 Governor · IN

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-10-21 (14 days before the election) · 631 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 35% · Republican 54%

R+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.04% · Republican 57.84%

R+17.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35 − 54 = -19.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.036 − 57.841 = -17.805
  3. Signed miss = -19.00 − (-17.805) = -1.194
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.194| = 1.194

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16736, race ID 1314 (538 database).