2008 President · CT
University of Connecticut · fieldwork ended 2008-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 502 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 56% · Republican 31%
D+25.0
The certified result
Democrat 60.59% · Republican 38.22%
D+22.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 56 − 31 = 25.00
- Actual margin = 60.589 − 38.221 = 22.368
- Signed miss = 25.00 − (22.368) = 2.633
- Absolute miss = |2.633| = 2.633
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16740, race ID 710 (538 database).