2008 House · NH-2
University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2008-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 349 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 25%
D+26.0
The certified result
Democrat 56.44% · Republican 41.42%
D+15.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 25 = 26.00
- Actual margin = 56.442 − 41.424 = 15.018
- Signed miss = 26.00 − (15.018) = 10.982
- Absolute miss = |10.982| = 10.982
The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16741, race ID 4268 (538 database).