2008 President · NJ
Marist College · fieldwork ended 2008-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 628 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 56% · Republican 39%
D+17.0
The certified result
Democrat 57.27% · Republican 41.70%
D+15.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 56 − 39 = 17.00
- Actual margin = 57.272 − 41.704 = 15.568
- Signed miss = 17.00 − (15.568) = 1.432
- Absolute miss = |1.432| = 1.432
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16752, race ID 735 (538 database).