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2008 Senate · LA

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2008-10-21 (14 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 43%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.11% · Republican 45.72%

D+6.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 43 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.110 − 45.723 = 6.387
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (6.387) = 3.614
  4. Absolute miss = |3.614| = 3.614

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16756, race ID 1557 (538 database).