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2008 President · NY

Siena College · fieldwork ended 2008-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 721 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 62% · Republican 31%

D+31.0

The certified result

Democrat 60.13% · Republican 31.30%

D+28.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 62 − 31 = 31.00
  2. Actual margin = 60.129 − 31.303 = 28.826
  3. Signed miss = 31.00 − (28.826) = 2.174
  4. Absolute miss = |2.174| = 2.174

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16759, race ID 738 (538 database).