2008 President · PA
FTI Consulting · fieldwork ended 2008-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 412 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 41%
D+10.0
The certified result
Democrat 54.49% · Republican 44.17%
D+10.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 41 = 10.00
- Actual margin = 54.486 − 44.167 = 10.319
- Signed miss = 10.00 − (10.319) = -0.318
- Absolute miss = |-0.318| = 0.318
The poll overstated the Republican by 0.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16764, race ID 742 (538 database).