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2008 President · WI

FTI Consulting · fieldwork ended 2008-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 405 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 40%

D+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.22% · Republican 42.31%

D+13.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 40 = 13.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.218 − 42.314 = 13.904
  3. Signed miss = 13.00 − (13.904) = -0.904
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.904| = 0.904

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16765, race ID 752 (538 database).