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2008 House · MT-1

Montana State University Billings · fieldwork ended 2008-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 403 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 25.3% · Republican 59.2%

R+33.9

The certified result

Democrat 32.42% · Republican 64.14%

R+31.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 25.3 − 59.2 = -33.90
  2. Actual margin = 32.425 − 64.144 = -31.719
  3. Signed miss = -33.90 − (-31.719) = -2.180
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.180| = 2.180

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16768, race ID 4260 (538 database).