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2008 Governor · WV

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2008-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 71% · Republican 21%

D+50.0

The certified result

Democrat 69.81% · Republican 25.73%

D+44.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 71 − 21 = 50.00
  2. Actual margin = 69.807 − 25.732 = 44.075
  3. Signed miss = 50.00 − (44.075) = 5.924
  4. Absolute miss = |5.924| = 5.924

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16772, race ID 1322 (538 database).