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2008 President · ME

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-10-19 (16 days before the election) · 642 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 39%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.71% · Republican 40.38%

D+17.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 39 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.706 − 40.384 = 17.322
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (17.322) = -2.322
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.322| = 2.322

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16775, race ID 725 (538 database).