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2008 Governor · NC

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-10-19 (16 days before the election) · 627 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 46%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.27% · Republican 46.88%

D+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 46 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.275 − 46.877 = 3.398
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (3.398) = -6.397
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.397| = 6.397

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16776, race ID 1323 (538 database).