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2008 President · NC

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-10-19 (16 days before the election) · 627 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 47%

even

The certified result

Democrat 49.70% · Republican 49.38%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 47 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.704 − 49.376 = 0.328
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (0.328) = -0.329
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.329| = 0.329

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.3 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16776, race ID 731 (538 database).