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2008 Senate · OK

SoonerPoll.com · fieldwork ended 2008-10-19 (16 days before the election) · 763 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 53%

R+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.18% · Republican 56.68%

R+17.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 53 = -13.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.184 − 56.680 = -17.496
  3. Signed miss = -13.00 − (-17.496) = 4.496
  4. Absolute miss = |4.496| = 4.496

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16778, race ID 1570 (538 database).