Skip to content

2008 President · NH

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2008-10-19 (16 days before the election) · 466 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 46%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.13% · Republican 44.52%

D+9.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 46 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.127 − 44.521 = 9.606
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (9.606) = -8.605
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.605| = 8.605

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16779, race ID 734 (538 database).