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2008 President · NV

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2008-10-19 (16 days before the election) · 670 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 52%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.15% · Republican 42.65%

D+12.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 52 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.147 − 42.654 = 12.493
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (12.493) = -20.493
  4. Absolute miss = |-20.493| = 20.493

The poll overstated the Republican by 20.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16784, race ID 737 (538 database).