2008 President · NC
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2008-10-19 (16 days before the election) · 921 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 47%
D+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.70% · Republican 49.38%
D+0.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 47 = 3.00
- Actual margin = 49.704 − 49.376 = 0.328
- Signed miss = 3.00 − (0.328) = 2.671
- Absolute miss = |2.671| = 2.671
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16786, race ID 731 (538 database).