2008 House · ME-1
Digital Research · fieldwork ended 2008-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 228 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 56% · Republican 35%
D+21.0
The certified result
Democrat 54.90% · Republican 45.10%
D+9.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 56 − 35 = 21.00
- Actual margin = 54.899 − 45.101 = 9.798
- Signed miss = 21.00 − (9.798) = 11.202
- Absolute miss = |11.202| = 11.202
The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16789, race ID 4204 (538 database).