2008 House · ME-2
Digital Research · fieldwork ended 2008-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 215 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 64% · Republican 23%
D+41.0
The certified result
Democrat 67.44% · Republican 32.56%
D+34.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 64 − 23 = 41.00
- Actual margin = 67.435 − 32.565 = 34.870
- Signed miss = 41.00 − (34.870) = 6.129
- Absolute miss = |6.129| = 6.129
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16789, race ID 4205 (538 database).