2008 President · ME
Digital Research · fieldwork ended 2008-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 443 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 56% · Republican 35%
D+21.0
The certified result
Democrat 57.71% · Republican 40.38%
D+17.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 56 − 35 = 21.00
- Actual margin = 57.706 − 40.384 = 17.322
- Signed miss = 21.00 − (17.322) = 3.678
- Absolute miss = |3.678| = 3.678
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16789, race ID 725 (538 database).