2008 Governor · WA
Elway Research · fieldwork ended 2008-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 405 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 39%
D+12.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.24% · Republican 46.76%
D+6.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 39 = 12.00
- Actual margin = 53.240 − 46.760 = 6.480
- Signed miss = 12.00 − (6.480) = 5.519
- Absolute miss = |5.519| = 5.519
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16791, race ID 1321 (538 database).