2008 President · WA
Elway Research · fieldwork ended 2008-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 405 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 55% · Republican 36%
D+19.0
The certified result
Democrat 57.65% · Republican 40.48%
D+17.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 55 − 36 = 19.00
- Actual margin = 57.653 − 40.476 = 17.177
- Signed miss = 19.00 − (17.177) = 1.823
- Absolute miss = |1.823| = 1.823
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16791, race ID 751 (538 database).