2008 President · IN
Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2008-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 1,411 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 46%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.95% · Republican 48.91%
D+1.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 46 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 49.946 − 48.914 = 1.032
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (1.032) = 0.968
- Absolute miss = |0.968| = 0.968
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16803, race ID 719 (538 database).